The enrollment growth addition to the school budget is the change in the number of students in Arlington’s public schools multiplied by a percentage of the most recent average per pupil cost for Arlington, as reported by the Massachusetts DESE. Past averages lag projections by three years, in other words, the growth factor in Arlington’s FY 2020 budget was based on the FY 2017 per-pupil average cost. Each year’s growth factor amount is added to the school budget’s base, so is inflated in future years by 3.5%.
The enrollment figures for the current budget are based on actual enrollment as of October 1 and future figures are estimates developed by the School Committee, and are adjusted each year. Note that if enrollment drops, the “growth factor” will become negative.
The percentage has been 35%, but was raised to 50% for FY 2020 and beyond. The percentage is believed to estimate the marginal increase in costs as enrollment grows.
School Enrollment Growth Factor
| Fiscal year | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enrollment growth over the previous year | 84 | 242 | 170 | 210 | 133 | 145 | 145 | 96 |
| DESE per-pupil cost | $13,085 FY 2014 | $13,383 FY 2015 | $13,984 FY 2016 | $14,332 FY 2017 | $14,332 FY 2017 | $14,332 FY 2017 | $14,332 FY 2017 | $14,332 FY 2017 |
| Growth factor % | 35% | 35% | 35% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Growth factor $ | $384,699 | $1,133,528 | $831,980 | $1,504,860 | $953,078 | $1,039,070 | $1,039,070 | $687,936 |